The Citadel
vs Mercer
The projected game, the historical pressure points and the personnel questions to take into preparation. Generated from published statistics and reviewed announcements.
Jan 30, 2027 · start time unconfirmedMercer designated home · Hawkins Arena
Mercer win estimate 84.0%
Projected total 145.2. Nominal 80% range for home scoring margin: -2.2 to +29.6. Either team winning falls within that range.
The model uses historical opponent-adjusted efficiency and tempo. It has no current roster or injury inputs. Schedule details are partial and may change. Model edition: Sep 12, 2026.
Checking the latest registered D1 forecast for this game…
Know what is settled before you scout.
The source schedule has not confirmed a tip time; recheck before distributing a plan.
Source schedule →The Citadel 100% prior minutes represented · Mercer 100% prior minutes represented
Roster evidence →No qualifying bookmaker observation is published; an edge cannot be reported.
Record a manual check →These checks describe source coverage and model state. They do not convert a roster listing into eligibility, a schedule into availability, or a market quote into a recommendation.
Compare a line you observed.
Enter a home spread, game total or both sides of a moneyline from a source you are reviewing. Results use the current forecast when available and stay in this browser; they are not a verified market observation, recommendation or ledger record.
Convention: spread edge = model home margin + home spread; total edge = model total − observed total. This arithmetic does not account for vig, pushes, limits, timing or player availability. The spread-cover probability is a normal approximation from the published nominal 80% margin interval; it is not a calibrated betting probability. Moneyline edge uses both sides to remove two-way vig. Expected return is a hypothetical arithmetic output from the model probability and quoted price; it is not a recommendation or a realized result.
Where the styles meet.
These are historical questions, not forecast adjustments. Each direction highlights up to two Four Factors with the largest difference in favorable percentile between one offense and the opposing defense. Rates came against different schedules and personnel; their difference is not an expected matchup outcome.
Keeping the game off the line
The Citadel offense ↔ Mercer defense
Free-throw attempts / FGA. Favorable percentile: 9.9 offense / 88.5 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions draw shooting fouls, and which defenders can contain them without fouling? Check the personnel and foul context before assigning a coverage.
Shot-making
The Citadel offense ↔ Mercer defense
Effective FG%. Favorable percentile: 32.3 offense / 61.9 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions create efficient shots, and which coverages take those looks away? Separate rim attempts, catch-and-shoot threes and contested pull-ups on film.
Shot-making
Mercer offense ↔ The Citadel defense
Effective FG%. Favorable percentile: 71.8 offense / 1.4 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions create efficient shots, and which coverages take those looks away? Separate rim attempts, catch-and-shoot threes and contested pull-ups on film.
Protecting the possession
Mercer offense ↔ The Citadel defense
Turnovers / possessions. Favorable percentile: 86.0 offense / 19.2 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Do the turnovers come from ball pressure, passing-lane help or unforced mistakes? Identify the ball handlers and distinguish live-ball losses from dead-ball turnovers.
The possession matchup.
The Citadel with the ball.
| Historical rate | The CitadelOffense | MercerDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 50.5%33 games · rank 248/366 | 50.2%32 games · rank 140/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 15.7%33 games · rank 122/366 | 17.9%32 games · rank 112/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 28.7%33 games · rank 263/366 | 32.5%32 games · rank 298/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 28.8%33 games · rank 330/366 | 28.3%32 games · rank 43/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 49.7%33 games | 41.6%32 games |
| Two-point FG% | 51.8%33 games · rank 208/366 | 49.7%32 games · rank 102/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 32.7%33 games · rank 256/366 | 34.0%32 games · rank 211/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open The Citadel’s full dossier →Mercer with the ball.
| Historical rate | MercerOffense | The CitadelDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 53.3%32 games · rank 104/366 | 56.6%33 games · rank 361/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 14.7%32 games · rank 52/366 | 15.2%33 games · rank 296/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 33.7%32 games · rank 93/366 | 30.7%33 games · rank 226/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 37.5%32 games · rank 104/366 | 32.3%33 games · rank 122/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.6%32 games | 43.6%33 games |
| Two-point FG% | 54.0%32 games · rank 111/366 | 58.2%33 games · rank 362/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.9%32 games · rank 131/366 | 36.4%33 games · rank 340/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open Mercer’s full dossier →Stat definitions and denominators
Effective FG%: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA.
Turnovers / possessions: Turnovers / estimated possessions.
Offensive rebound rate: ORB / (ORB + opponent DRB).
Free-throw attempts / FGA: FTA / FGA; displayed per 100 field-goal attempts.
Rates are pooled from the source records, not averages of game percentages. Rankings compare the 366 programs in the model field. Some source games include opponents outside Division I.
The pace question.
The Citadel recorded 65.1 possessions per 40 minutes across 33 paired games; Mercer recorded 70.9 across 32. The adjusted forecast for this matchup is 67.1. Identify which team’s personnel can dictate the first pass, early offense and transition balance; the historical tempo gap alone does not identify a tactical winner.
See which lineups actually shared the floor.
The matchup-stint archive keeps each publisher-native five-player group beside the opposing five, with possessions, repeat games and scoring margin. Search these teams to turn the factor question into a film assignment; the source IDs remain separate from the forecast and recruiting identities.
What happened when these programs met?
This is a descriptive look at completed meetings where the home and away source team IDs matched exactly in the scouting archive. It is context for preparation, not a head-to-head forecast; a missing row means this source edition did not retain a qualifying meeting.
| Date | Location | Score | Result | Margin | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026Game 401809370 | Mercer road | 70–54 | W | +16.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
| Jan 8, 2026Game 401809315 | Mercer home | 101–63 | W | +38.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
What survives a harder schedule?
These four-factor role estimates adjust for opponent and season recency using the same team-and-venue design as the efficiency model. A positive gap means the offense’s favorable rate is stronger than the opposing defense’s corresponding rate. This is a descriptive lens for preparation, not a new forecast or a claim about the next rotation.
The Citadel offense vs Mercer defense.
| Adjusted rate | The CitadelOffense | MercerDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rebound rate | 27.4% | 30.6% | -3.3 ppfavors this defense |
| Effective FG% | 48.7% | 51.4% | -2.7 ppfavors this defense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 32.3% | 33.8% | -1.5 ppfavors this defense |
| Turnover rate | 18.1% | 17.3% | -0.8 ppfavors this defense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Mercer offense vs The Citadel defense.
| Adjusted rate | MercerOffense | The CitadelDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 50.7% | 54.9% | -4.2 ppfavors this defense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 34.4% | 32.6% | +1.8 ppfavors this offense |
| Turnover rate | 16.8% | 15.9% | -0.9 ppfavors this defense |
| Offensive rebound rate | 30.8% | 31.2% | -0.3 ppfavors this defense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Who carried the old possessions?
The three largest recorded minute totals on each 2025–26 team, among players with at least 200 minutes. These are historical contributors, not a projected 2026–27 rotation. Follow the player history and verify availability before assigning matchups.
The Citadel / 2025–26
Usage sample: 33 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 30 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 31 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Mercer / 2025–26
Usage sample: 31 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 32 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 32 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
How much old workload is represented?
This is an exact-ID comparison between the published 2026–27 roster listing and recorded 2025–26 minutes. It describes what the source currently represents; it does not establish eligibility, availability, a returning decision or a projected rotation, and it does not change the forecast.
The Citadel
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard9 listed | 3,200 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward9 listed | 3,525 | 100% | — | — |
| Center0 listed | — | — | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 6,725 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for The Citadel →Mercer
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard10 listed | 4,567 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward5 listed | 836 | 100% | — | — |
| Center1 listed | 996 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 6,399 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for Mercer →What changed after those box scores?
This board covers a limited set of schools. An announced addition does not by itself prove game-day availability. Later statements remain in the player’s timeline; a missing entry is not evidence that a player left or that a roster stayed unchanged.
The Citadel
This program is outside the reviewed school-announcement coverage in this edition. Check its official roster and availability reports.
Open the recruiting evidence board →Mercer
This program is outside the reviewed school-announcement coverage in this edition. Check its official roster and availability reports.
Open the recruiting evidence board →The forecast and market trail.
Published ledger edition Sep 15, 2026. Only a record matching this game’s model, participants, start and prediction can appear here. Quotes are last qualifying observations, not verified closing lines or a live price feed.
Forecast registered . Status: Excluded · Start time unconfirmed.
No qualifying timestamped market comparison is available for this forecast in this ledger edition. A model-versus-market edge cannot be reported.
For spreads, a positive difference is model home margin plus the observed home spread; for totals it is model total minus the line; for moneylines it is model home probability minus the two-way normalized market probability. These are model disagreements, not placed bets or profit estimates.
Inspect this game’s complete forecast and source history →Retained reading snapshots of this brief →
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