Kansas
vs UConn
The projected game, the historical pressure points and the personnel questions to take into preparation. Generated from published statistics and reviewed announcements.
Dec 12, 2026 · start time unconfirmedUConn designated home · Gampel Pavilion
UConn win estimate 70.9%
Projected total 139.0. Nominal 80% range for home scoring margin: -9.3 to +22.6. Either team winning falls within that range.
The model uses historical opponent-adjusted efficiency and tempo. It has no current roster or injury inputs. Schedule details are partial and may change. Model edition: Sep 12, 2026.
Checking the latest registered D1 forecast for this game…
Know what is settled before you scout.
The source schedule has not confirmed a tip time; recheck before distributing a plan.
Source schedule →Kansas 57% prior minutes represented · UConn 71% prior minutes represented
Roster evidence →No qualifying bookmaker observation is published; an edge cannot be reported.
Record a manual check →These checks describe source coverage and model state. They do not convert a roster listing into eligibility, a schedule into availability, or a market quote into a recommendation.
Compare a line you observed.
Enter a home spread, game total or both sides of a moneyline from a source you are reviewing. Results use the current forecast when available and stay in this browser; they are not a verified market observation, recommendation or ledger record.
Convention: spread edge = model home margin + home spread; total edge = model total − observed total. This arithmetic does not account for vig, pushes, limits, timing or player availability. The spread-cover probability is a normal approximation from the published nominal 80% margin interval; it is not a calibrated betting probability. Moneyline edge uses both sides to remove two-way vig. Expected return is a hypothetical arithmetic output from the model probability and quoted price; it is not a recommendation or a realized result.
Where the styles meet.
These are historical questions, not forecast adjustments. Each direction highlights up to two Four Factors with the largest difference in favorable percentile between one offense and the opposing defense. Rates came against different schedules and personnel; their difference is not an expected matchup outcome.
Shot-making
Kansas offense ↔ UConn defense
Effective FG%. Favorable percentile: 43.6 offense / 97.5 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions create efficient shots, and which coverages take those looks away? Separate rim attempts, catch-and-shoot threes and contested pull-ups on film.
Finishing the possession
Kansas offense ↔ UConn defense
Offensive rebound rate. Favorable percentile: 32.1 offense / 67.7 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Who earns the second-chance possessions, and who must take the first box-out assignment? Check whether extra crashers leave transition chances at the other end.
Keeping the game off the line
UConn offense ↔ Kansas defense
Free-throw attempts / FGA. Favorable percentile: 15.9 offense / 91.8 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions draw shooting fouls, and which defenders can contain them without fouling? Check the personnel and foul context before assigning a coverage.
Protecting the possession
UConn offense ↔ Kansas defense
Turnovers / possessions. Favorable percentile: 53.2 offense / 6.6 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Do the turnovers come from ball pressure, passing-lane help or unforced mistakes? Identify the ball handlers and distinguish live-ball losses from dead-ball turnovers.
The possession matchup.
Kansas with the ball.
| Historical rate | KansasOffense | UConnDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 51.2%35 games · rank 207/366 | 45.7%40 games · rank 10/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 15.6%35 games · rank 115/366 | 17.8%40 games · rank 117/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 29.2%35 games · rank 249/366 | 28.8%40 games · rank 119/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 32.2%35 games · rank 251/366 | 40.7%40 games · rank 323/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 35.2%35 games | 36.0%40 games |
| Two-point FG% | 50.9%35 games · rank 250/366 | 46.0%40 games · rank 20/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.6%35 games · rank 151/366 | 30.2%40 games · rank 14/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open Kansas’s full dossier →UConn with the ball.
| Historical rate | UConnOffense | KansasDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 54.3%40 games · rank 73/366 | 45.0%35 games · rank 4/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 16.4%40 games · rank 172/366 | 13.8%35 games · rank 342/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 35.7%40 games · rank 40/366 | 29.9%35 games · rank 172/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 29.9%40 games · rank 308/366 | 27.4%35 games · rank 31/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.9%40 games | 41.8%35 games |
| Two-point FG% | 56.1%40 games · rank 46/366 | 44.4%35 games · rank 6/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.4%40 games · rank 160/366 | 30.6%35 games · rank 30/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open UConn’s full dossier →Stat definitions and denominators
Effective FG%: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA.
Turnovers / possessions: Turnovers / estimated possessions.
Offensive rebound rate: ORB / (ORB + opponent DRB).
Free-throw attempts / FGA: FTA / FGA; displayed per 100 field-goal attempts.
Rates are pooled from the source records, not averages of game percentages. Rankings compare the 366 programs in the model field. Some source games include opponents outside Division I.
The pace question.
Kansas recorded 68.3 possessions per 40 minutes across 35 paired games; UConn recorded 65.7 across 40. The adjusted forecast for this matchup is 66.2. Identify which team’s personnel can dictate the first pass, early offense and transition balance; the historical tempo gap alone does not identify a tactical winner.
See which lineups actually shared the floor.
The matchup-stint archive keeps each publisher-native five-player group beside the opposing five, with possessions, repeat games and scoring margin. Search these teams to turn the factor question into a film assignment; the source IDs remain separate from the forecast and recruiting identities.
What happened when these programs met?
This is a descriptive look at completed meetings where the home and away source team IDs matched exactly in the scouting archive. It is context for preparation, not a head-to-head forecast; a missing row means this source edition did not retain a qualifying meeting.
| Date | Location | Score | Result | Margin | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025Game 401812791 | UConn road | 61–56 | W | +5.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
What survives a harder schedule?
These four-factor role estimates adjust for opponent and season recency using the same team-and-venue design as the efficiency model. A positive gap means the offense’s favorable rate is stronger than the opposing defense’s corresponding rate. This is a descriptive lens for preparation, not a new forecast or a claim about the next rotation.
Kansas offense vs UConn defense.
| Adjusted rate | KansasOffense | UConnDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 53.9% | 45.3% | +8.7 ppfavors this offense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 32.2% | 39.0% | -6.8 ppfavors this defense |
| Offensive rebound rate | 30.4% | 26.8% | +3.6 ppfavors this offense |
| Turnover rate | 15.7% | 17.5% | +1.8 ppfavors this offense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
UConn offense vs Kansas defense.
| Adjusted rate | UConnOffense | KansasDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 56.0% | 45.2% | +10.7 ppfavors this offense |
| Offensive rebound rate | 36.2% | 26.3% | +9.9 ppfavors this offense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 33.8% | 29.2% | +4.7 ppfavors this offense |
| Turnover rate | 16.5% | 16.3% | -0.3 ppfavors this defense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Who carried the old possessions?
The three largest recorded minute totals on each 2025–26 team, among players with at least 200 minutes. These are historical contributors, not a projected 2026–27 rotation. Follow the player history and verify availability before assigning matchups.
Kansas / 2025–26
Usage sample: 35 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 35 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 35 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
UConn / 2025–26
Usage sample: 40 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 39 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 39 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
How much old workload is represented?
This is an exact-ID comparison between the published 2026–27 roster listing and recorded 2025–26 minutes. It describes what the source currently represents; it does not establish eligibility, availability, a returning decision or a projected rotation, and it does not change the forecast.
Kansas
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard8 listed | 1,842 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward4 listed | 2,091 | 100% | — | — |
| Center1 listed | 107 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 7,050 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for Kansas →UConn
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard7 listed | 3,890 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward4 listed | 1,274 | 100% | — | — |
| Center2 listed | 556 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 8,050 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for UConn →What changed after those box scores?
This board covers a limited set of schools. An announced addition does not by itself prove game-day availability. Later statements remain in the player’s timeline; a missing entry is not evidence that a player left or that a roster stayed unchanged.
Kansas
Kansas announced Atticus Richmond as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published May 12, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Atticus Richmond as a 2026–27 addition. May 12, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Dennis Parker Jr. as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published May 11, 2026 ↗Historical production at Radford →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Dennis Parker Jr. as a 2026–27 addition. May 11, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Christian Reeves as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Historical production at Charleston →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Christian Reeves as a 2026–27 addition. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas identified Davion Adkins among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas identified Davion Adkins among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Grant Mordini as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Grant Mordini as a 2026–27 addition. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas identified Luke Barnett among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas identified Luke Barnett among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas identified Taylen Kinney among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas identified Taylen Kinney among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas identified Trent Perry among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update.
Kansas Athletics · published May 1, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas identified Trent Perry among its previously signed freshmen in the May 1 update. May 1, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Tyran Stokes as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Tyran Stokes as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Leroy Blyden Jr. as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published Apr 22, 2026 ↗Historical production at Toledo →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Leroy Blyden Jr. as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 22, 2026 source ↗
Kansas announced Keanu Dawes as a 2026–27 addition.
Kansas Athletics · published Apr 21, 2026 ↗Historical production at Utah →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Kansas announced Keanu Dawes as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 21, 2026 source ↗
UConn
UConn announced Egor Amosov as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Jul 6, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Egor Amosov as a 2026–27 addition. Jul 6, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Elmir Džafic as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Jun 2, 2026 ↗Historical production at Arkansas →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Elmir Džafic as a 2026–27 addition. Jun 2, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Isaiah Shaw as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published May 27, 2026 ↗Historical production at N Arizona →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Isaiah Shaw as a 2026–27 addition. May 27, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Jaye Nash as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published May 27, 2026 ↗Historical production at Jax State →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Jaye Nash as a 2026–27 addition. May 27, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Najai Hines as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Seton Hall →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Najai Hines as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Nikolas Khamenia as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Duke →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Nikolas Khamenia as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Nils Machowski as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Wofford →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Nils Machowski as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Oskar Giltay as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Stanford →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Oskar Giltay as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
What the source wire is saying.
These dated headlines are retained from permitted ESPN and NCAA.com RSS feeds and are shown as reporting context. They do not alter the forecast or establish an injury, eligibility, transfer or availability decision.
5-star NaVorro Bowman Jr., son of ex-NFL star, picks UConn hoops
Five-star guard NaVorro Bowman Jr., the son of former NFL standout NaVorro Bowman, has committed to UConn, he told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Thursday, giving the Huskies the highest-ranked committed player in the 2027 class.
Read publisher source ↗'OOHHHHH!': UConn rewinds, trolls Duke in nonconference schedule unveiling
UConn unveiled its nonconference schedule Thursday and had a bit more fun with a specific opponent.
Read publisher source ↗UConn, St. John's, then who? Predictions for every Big East team in 2026-27
Will UConn reign supreme in the Big East? Who's the weakest in the league? Projections for all 11 teams.
Read publisher source ↗The forecast and market trail.
Published ledger edition Sep 15, 2026. Only a record matching this game’s model, participants, start and prediction can appear here. Quotes are last qualifying observations, not verified closing lines or a live price feed.
Forecast registered . Status: Excluded · Start time unconfirmed.
No qualifying timestamped market comparison is available for this forecast in this ledger edition. A model-versus-market edge cannot be reported.
For spreads, a positive difference is model home margin plus the observed home spread; for totals it is model total minus the line; for moneylines it is model home probability minus the two-way normalized market probability. These are model disagreements, not placed bets or profit estimates.
Inspect this game’s complete forecast and source history →Retained reading snapshots of this brief →
Take it into the film room.
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