UConn
vs Duke
The projected game, the historical pressure points and the personnel questions to take into preparation. Generated from published statistics and reviewed announcements.
Nov 25, 2026 · start time unconfirmedNeutral floor · T-Mobile Arena
Duke win estimate 66.7%
Projected total 139.8. Nominal 80% range for home scoring margin: -11.1 to +20.8. Either team winning falls within that range.
The model uses historical opponent-adjusted efficiency and tempo. It has no current roster or injury inputs. Schedule details are partial and may change. Model edition: Sep 12, 2026.
Checking the latest registered D1 forecast for this game…
Know what is settled before you scout.
The source schedule has not confirmed a tip time; recheck before distributing a plan.
Source schedule →UConn 71% prior minutes represented · Duke 59% prior minutes represented
Roster evidence →No qualifying bookmaker observation is published; an edge cannot be reported.
Record a manual check →These checks describe source coverage and model state. They do not convert a roster listing into eligibility, a schedule into availability, or a market quote into a recommendation.
Compare a line you observed.
Enter a home spread, game total or both sides of a moneyline from a source you are reviewing. Results use the current forecast when available and stay in this browser; they are not a verified market observation, recommendation or ledger record.
Convention: spread edge = model home margin + home spread; total edge = model total − observed total. This arithmetic does not account for vig, pushes, limits, timing or player availability. The spread-cover probability is a normal approximation from the published nominal 80% margin interval; it is not a calibrated betting probability. Moneyline edge uses both sides to remove two-way vig. Expected return is a hypothetical arithmetic output from the model probability and quoted price; it is not a recommendation or a realized result.
Where the styles meet.
These are historical questions, not forecast adjustments. Each direction highlights up to two Four Factors with the largest difference in favorable percentile between one offense and the opposing defense. Rates came against different schedules and personnel; their difference is not an expected matchup outcome.
Keeping the game off the line
UConn offense ↔ Duke defense
Free-throw attempts / FGA. Favorable percentile: 15.9 offense / 99.5 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions draw shooting fouls, and which defenders can contain them without fouling? Check the personnel and foul context before assigning a coverage.
Shot-making
UConn offense ↔ Duke defense
Effective FG%. Favorable percentile: 80.3 offense / 95.9 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions create efficient shots, and which coverages take those looks away? Separate rim attempts, catch-and-shoot threes and contested pull-ups on film.
Keeping the game off the line
Duke offense ↔ UConn defense
Free-throw attempts / FGA. Favorable percentile: 76.4 offense / 11.8 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Which actions draw shooting fouls, and which defenders can contain them without fouling? Check the personnel and foul context before assigning a coverage.
Finishing the possession
Duke offense ↔ UConn defense
Offensive rebound rate. Favorable percentile: 98.4 offense / 67.7 defense. Higher favorable percentile is better, including for statistics where a lower raw rate is better.
On film: Who earns the second-chance possessions, and who must take the first box-out assignment? Check whether extra crashers leave transition chances at the other end.
The possession matchup.
UConn with the ball.
| Historical rate | UConnOffense | DukeDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 54.3%40 games · rank 73/366 | 46.2%38 games · rank 16/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 16.4%40 games · rank 172/366 | 17.3%38 games · rank 147/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 35.7%40 games · rank 40/366 | 25.2%38 games · rank 14/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 29.9%40 games · rank 308/366 | 22.8%38 games · rank 3/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 40.9%40 games | 45.0%38 games |
| Two-point FG% | 56.1%40 games · rank 46/366 | 46.4%38 games · rank 27/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.4%40 games · rank 160/366 | 30.6%38 games · rank 34/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open UConn’s full dossier →Duke with the ball.
| Historical rate | DukeOffense | UConnDefense |
|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 56.6%38 games · rank 15/366 | 45.7%40 games · rank 10/366 |
| Turnovers / possessions | 15.9%38 games · rank 139/366 | 17.8%40 games · rank 117/366 |
| Offensive rebound rate | 38.4%38 games · rank 7/366 | 28.8%40 games · rank 119/366 |
| Free-throw attempts / FGA | 38.2%38 games · rank 87/366 | 40.7%40 games · rank 323/366 |
| Three-point attempt share | 43.5%38 games | 36.0%40 games |
| Two-point FG% | 60.2%38 games · rank 11/366 | 46.0%40 games · rank 20/366 |
| Three-point FG% | 34.7%38 games · rank 143/366 | 30.2%40 games · rank 14/366 |
Defense reports opponent rates, except turnovers forced. Each statistic pools its own valid numerators and denominators; game counts can differ. Three-point attempt share describes style and has no favorable rank.
Open Duke’s full dossier →Stat definitions and denominators
Effective FG%: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA.
Turnovers / possessions: Turnovers / estimated possessions.
Offensive rebound rate: ORB / (ORB + opponent DRB).
Free-throw attempts / FGA: FTA / FGA; displayed per 100 field-goal attempts.
Rates are pooled from the source records, not averages of game percentages. Rankings compare the 366 programs in the model field. Some source games include opponents outside Division I.
The pace question.
UConn recorded 65.7 possessions per 40 minutes across 40 paired games; Duke recorded 66.8 across 38. The adjusted forecast for this matchup is 64.2. Identify which team’s personnel can dictate the first pass, early offense and transition balance; the historical tempo gap alone does not identify a tactical winner.
See which lineups actually shared the floor.
The matchup-stint archive keeps each publisher-native five-player group beside the opposing five, with possessions, repeat games and scoring margin. Search these teams to turn the factor question into a film assignment; the source IDs remain separate from the forecast and recruiting identities.
What happened when these programs met?
This is a descriptive look at completed meetings where the home and away source team IDs matched exactly in the scouting archive. It is context for preparation, not a head-to-head forecast; a missing row means this source edition did not retain a qualifying meeting.
| Date | Location | Score | Result | Margin | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026Game 401856577 | Neutral | 72–73 | L | -1.0 | ESPN source ↗ |
What survives a harder schedule?
These four-factor role estimates adjust for opponent and season recency using the same team-and-venue design as the efficiency model. A positive gap means the offense’s favorable rate is stronger than the opposing defense’s corresponding rate. This is a descriptive lens for preparation, not a new forecast or a claim about the next rotation.
UConn offense vs Duke defense.
| Adjusted rate | UConnOffense | DukeDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rebound rate | 36.2% | 25.1% | +11.1 ppfavors this offense |
| Effective FG% | 56.0% | 45.4% | +10.6 ppfavors this offense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 33.8% | 26.0% | +7.8 ppfavors this offense |
| Turnover rate | 16.5% | 17.6% | +1.1 ppfavors this offense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Duke offense vs UConn defense.
| Adjusted rate | DukeOffense | UConnDefense | Favorable gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective FG% | 57.1% | 45.3% | +11.8 ppfavors this offense |
| Offensive rebound rate | 36.2% | 26.8% | +9.4 ppfavors this offense |
| Free-throw attempt rate | 37.0% | 39.0% | -2.0 ppfavors this defense |
| Turnover rate | 15.7% | 17.5% | +1.8 ppfavors this offense |
For turnover rate, lower offensive turnover rate and higher forced-turnover rate are favorable. The other rows favor more efficient offense and lower opponent rates.
Who carried the old possessions?
The three largest recorded minute totals on each 2025–26 team, among players with at least 200 minutes. These are historical contributors, not a projected 2026–27 rotation. Follow the player history and verify availability before assigning matchups.
UConn / 2025–26
Usage sample: 40 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 39 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 39 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Duke / 2025–26
Usage sample: 38 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 38 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
Usage sample: 38 games. An opportunity estimate from matched minutes and boxes, not measured on-court possessions.
How much old workload is represented?
This is an exact-ID comparison between the published 2026–27 roster listing and recorded 2025–26 minutes. It describes what the source currently represents; it does not establish eligibility, availability, a returning decision or a projected rotation, and it does not change the forecast.
UConn
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard7 listed | 3,890 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward4 listed | 1,274 | 100% | — | — |
| Center2 listed | 556 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 8,050 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for UConn →Duke
| Role workload | Prior min | Returning | Incoming | Unrepresented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guard9 listed | 3,758 | 100% | — | — |
| Forward0 listed | — | — | — | — |
| Center2 listed | 724 | 100% | — | — |
Roster shape uses only the source-reported position labels on this listing; it is descriptive and does not identify a viable lineup or positional matchup.
Role rows use prior production attached to the currently listed source records. They are a narrower sample than the team denominator above; a missing or unclassified listing remains unknown.
The percentage uses 7,600 recorded 2025–26 minutes for this program as its denominator. A missing listing is not evidence of a departure; a new entry is not proof of a freshman or transfer.
Review roster observations and announcements →Build a role shortlist for Duke →What changed after those box scores?
This board covers a limited set of schools. An announced addition does not by itself prove game-day availability. Later statements remain in the player’s timeline; a missing entry is not evidence that a player left or that a roster stayed unchanged.
UConn
UConn announced Egor Amosov as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Jul 6, 2026 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Egor Amosov as a 2026–27 addition. Jul 6, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Elmir Džafic as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Jun 2, 2026 ↗Historical production at Arkansas →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Elmir Džafic as a 2026–27 addition. Jun 2, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Isaiah Shaw as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published May 27, 2026 ↗Historical production at N Arizona →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Isaiah Shaw as a 2026–27 addition. May 27, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Jaye Nash as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published May 27, 2026 ↗Historical production at Jax State →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Jaye Nash as a 2026–27 addition. May 27, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Najai Hines as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Seton Hall →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Najai Hines as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Nikolas Khamenia as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Duke →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Nikolas Khamenia as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Nils Machowski as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Wofford →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Nils Machowski as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
UConn announced Oskar Giltay as a 2026–27 addition.
UConn Athletics · published Apr 29, 2026 ↗Historical production at Stanford →
Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · UConn announced Oskar Giltay as a 2026–27 addition. Apr 29, 2026 source ↗
Duke
Duke announced Bryson Howard as a 2026–27 addition.
Duke Athletics · published Nov 20, 2025 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Duke announced Bryson Howard as a 2026–27 addition. Nov 20, 2025 source ↗
Duke announced Cameron Williams as a 2026–27 addition.
Duke Athletics · published Nov 20, 2025 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Duke announced Cameron Williams as a 2026–27 addition. Nov 20, 2025 source ↗
Duke announced Maxime Meyer as a 2026–27 addition.
Duke Athletics · published Nov 20, 2025 ↗Announcement timeline · 1 source event
Addition announced · Duke announced Maxime Meyer as a 2026–27 addition. Nov 20, 2025 source ↗
What the source wire is saying.
These dated headlines are retained from permitted ESPN and NCAA.com RSS feeds and are shown as reporting context. They do not alter the forecast or establish an injury, eligibility, transfer or availability decision.
5-star NaVorro Bowman Jr., son of ex-NFL star, picks UConn hoops
Five-star guard NaVorro Bowman Jr., the son of former NFL standout NaVorro Bowman, has committed to UConn, he told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Thursday, giving the Huskies the highest-ranked committed player in the 2027 class.
Read publisher source ↗'OOHHHHH!': UConn rewinds, trolls Duke in nonconference schedule unveiling
UConn unveiled its nonconference schedule Thursday and had a bit more fun with a specific opponent.
Read publisher source ↗UConn, St. John's, then who? Predictions for every Big East team in 2026-27
Will UConn reign supreme in the Big East? Who's the weakest in the league? Projections for all 11 teams.
Read publisher source ↗Duke's Coach K Court to have sponsorship logo
For the first time in program history, Coach K Court at Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium will have a sponsorship logo on it, the program announced Monday.
Read publisher source ↗The forecast and market trail.
Published ledger edition Sep 15, 2026. Only a record matching this game’s model, participants, start and prediction can appear here. Quotes are last qualifying observations, not verified closing lines or a live price feed.
Forecast registered . Status: Excluded · Start time unconfirmed.
No qualifying timestamped market comparison is available for this forecast in this ledger edition. A model-versus-market edge cannot be reported.
For spreads, a positive difference is model home margin plus the observed home spread; for totals it is model total minus the line; for moneylines it is model home probability minus the two-way normalized market probability. These are model disagreements, not placed bets or profit estimates.
Inspect this game’s complete forecast and source history →Retained reading snapshots of this brief →
Take it into the film room.
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